About

IFEG at a Glance

The Institute for Ex-Ante Governance (IFEG) is a research institution that has the status of a strategic partner of Ma'had Uthman Bin Affan — YAIS Education Center Foundation. IFEG has academic and operational autonomy in determining research agendas, methodologies, recruitment, and publication policies, within the framework of institutional governance and applicable legal provisions.

IFEG is here to answer questions:

"How can the quality of the reasoning process underlying strategic decisions be tested, debated, and studied before commitments become difficult to reverse?"

We believe that the quality of a decision is determined not only by the final outcome, but by the reasoning process that precedes it—how assumptions are tested, alternatives are explored, and justifications are constructed.

IFEG focuses on developing knowledge and methodologies to answer these questions. IFEG does not claim to have found absolute emptiness in the global governance architecture, but rather proposes and empirically tests an approach that places the quality of pre-decision reasoning as the object of structured study.

Background

A number of cross-project studies have shown persistent performance patterns on large and complex projects:

• In a database of more than 16,000 projects reviewed by Flyvbjerg and Gardner, only 8.5% met the cost and time targets, while only 0.5% met the expected cost, time and benefit targets.¹

• In McKinsey's study of megaprojects, about 98% were estimated to experience cost overruns of more than 30%; The same study also estimated that 77% experienced delays of at least 40%.²

The findings do not by themselves point to a specific cause. However, the consistency of these patterns provides an empirical anomaly/problem signal that is worth investigating: why have ever-evolving planning, forecasting, risk management, and technology tools not eliminated observed failure patterns?

IFEG views the question as a research agenda, not as preliminary evidence that the failure is due to the quality of the reasoning process. The relationship between the quality of the decision-making process and the results of the project must be empirically tested.

Vision

"Building reasoning and governance capacity through research, cadre, and knowledge documentation."

Mission

1. Applied Research — Conduct research on pre-decision governance and policy reasoning in the public sector, with a focus on assumption testing, alternative exploration, and identification of failure patterns.

2. Intellectual Cadre — Becoming a forum for the younger generation (especially fresh graduates) to learn research methodology and policy analysis through a structured fellowship program.

3. Documentation and Dissemination — Document learning and disseminate knowledge through limited publications and discussions — to reduce the risk of institutional memory loss.

Basic Principles

1. Scientific Humility — IFEG does not consider its framework to be correct automatically. Each framework can be critiqued, revised, or discontinued based on learning.

2. Focus on Process — IFEG success is measured by the quality of learning, not by how many recommendations are adopted.

3. Proportionality — Activities are adjusted to the available capacity. IFEG is a small research institution with a long memory, not a small institution that tries to look like a big institution.

4. Academic Independence — IFEG has academic freedom in the formulation of research questions, methodologies, analysis, and scientific conclusions — while remaining subject to institutional governance, law, and organizational accountability.

1st Year Organizational Structure

a. Steering Committee

• As an academic steering and supervisory organ that is functionally separate from the Foundation's funding and administrative functions.

• It consists of professionals, academics, and practitioners who are committed to the development of reasoning-based governance.

• Appointed by the Foundation Trustees based on considerations of competence and integrity, with the mandate to maintain the academic independence of IFEG.

b. Director of IFEG

• Lead day-to-day operations, coordinate research, and ensure program sustainability.

• The term of office is 5 years and can be extended.

c. Research Fellows

• Research development program for fresh graduates from various disciplines.

• Duration 10-12 months with intensive guidance.

• Participants receive a Fellowship Program Completion Certificate, which indicates completion of a development program—not a professional competency certification.

1st Year Programs & Activities

a. Research & Publications

• Case Autopsy — Dissect cases of strategic decisions in the public sector from secondary data to identify patterns of assumptions, overlooked alternatives, and reasoning failures.

• Working Paper & Decision Brief — Publication of research results that have gone through internal methodological review and, if necessary, external peer review.

• Reasoning Library — A repository of case annotations with the scheme: Case → Decision → Context → Assumptions → Evidence → Alternatives → Dissent → Outcome → Lesson.

b. Regeneration

• Research Fellowship — A 10-12-month program with intensive mentorship, methodological training, and the opportunity to co-author a publication.

c. Dissemination

• Webinars & Public Discussions — An open forum for governance literacy and decision reasoning.

• Light Publication — Article on the IFEG website.

Relationship with Intellectual Architecture

IFEG developed and tested the following frameworks:

1. PDG (Pre-Decision Governance) — A tested core operational framework for analyzing the decision-making process.

2. CAA (Cognitive Accountability Architecture) — A conceptual framework on reasoning accountability.

3. CADEE (Constitutionally Anchored Distributed Evidentiary Ecosystem) — An analytical framework on the interaction between evidence contribution and institutional competence.

IFEG does not equate the entire framework as its identity. If one day the PDG is rejected or replaced, IFEG still has a reason to exist as an institution that develops the science and methodology of pre-decision governance.

Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) Year 1

a. Pillar 1: Applied Research

• 1 Case Autopsy Report

• 1 Working Paper or Decision Brief

• 1 IFEG internal decisions tested with PDG protocols

b. Pillar 2: Intellectual Cadre

• 80% of Fellows complete all program deliverables

• 80% of Fellows complete 1 WP/DB according to the rubric

• 80% of Fellows have a presentation-ready research portfolio

c. Pillar 3: Documentation and Dissemination

• 10 case annotations in the Reasoning Library

• 2 articles on the IFEG website

• 1 webinar with a minimum of 20 participants

• Design of tracer instruments and baseline data fellows/alumni for three-year evaluation

Notes

This document is the institutional baseline of IFEG's first year. Targets and scope will be evaluated and expanded gradually based on implementation experience and resource availability. IFEG prioritizes the quality of learning over the quantity of output in the initial phase.

Relationship with Ma'had Uthman Bin Affan

During this transition period, IFEG operated as a strategic partner of Ma'had Uthman Bin Affan. This relationship is designed to provide academic and operational independence for IFEG, while maintaining accountability and financial governance under the coordination of the foundation.

Principle of Relationship:

1. Academic Autonomy — IFEG has complete freedom in determining research questions, methodologies, analysis, scientific conclusions, and publication policies. Ma'had did not have the authority to intervene in the substance of IFEG's research.

2. Operational Independence — IFEG manages research, fellowship, and dissemination programs independently. Recruitment, training, and performance evaluation are carried out independently by IFEG based on the policies set by the Steering Committee, taking into account the institutional framework of the Foundation.

3. Distribution of Funds through Ma'had — For the purposes of administration and governance supervision during the transition period, grants from the Foundation are channeled through Ma'had. This ensures the existence of a check and balance mechanism without reducing IFEG's academic autonomy.

4. Financial Reporting — IFEG is obliged to report financial accountability (report on the use of funds) to Ma'had on a regular basis. Ma'had is in charge of ensuring that funds are used in accordance with their allocation based on the approved proposals.

5. Evaluation and Sustainability — This transition scheme will be evaluated periodically. Once IFEG has a track record, strong financial governance, and adequate administrative capacity, IFEG can rise to the status of a direct partner of the foundation (without Ma'had's intermediary).

6. Strategic Coordination — Coordination between IFEG and Ma'had is carried out at the Foundation level or through the Foundation Chairman, to ensure alignment of vision and values without confusing operations.

Affiliates

IFEG is a strategic partner of Ma'had Uthman Bin Affan — YAIS

Website 

https://www.immsu.org

This document was prepared by the Institute for Ex-Ante Governance (IFEG) as an institutional profile and operational foundation.

Footnotes:

1. Flyvbjerg, B., & Gardner, D. (2023). How Big Things Get Done: The Surprising Factors That Determine the Fate of Every Project, from Home Renovations to Space Exploration. Currency. The findings come from a database of more than 16,000 projects in 136 countries, covering projects dating back to the early 20th century.

2. Changali, S., Mohammad, A., & van Nieuwland, M. (2015). "The Construction Productivity Imperative." McKinsey & Company.